Bitcoin is going stratospheric. It *seems* to have started because of the announcements that CME will be offering futures on Bitcoin in a couple weeks. That seems to have been the news which brought Bitcoin to the mainstream and now it’s plastered all over all the newspapers and money shows.
This is obvious from the stats for Coinbase signups, which went from 100,000 a month to 100,000 a week.
I don’t know how futures will affect the price. Some people say that it will allow institutions to short Bitcoin and we will see massive shorts, driving the price down. Other people say that it will allow institutions to participate in Bitcoin without counterparty risk, thus increasing the inflow of money into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Rootstock, the sidechain technology which promises to help with Bitcoin scaling and also open up smart contracts, is now in open beta which is bullish.
It also seems that a side effect of all of the incoming traffic is that Ethereum and Litecoin is headed north again. Ethereum is crossing 500 and Litecoin 150. Most likely this is due to the fact that all three coins are sold on Coinbase, and people are looking for the next get rich quick coin.
Ethereum is currently ground to a halt because of some digital cat breeding app, further drawing attention to its scaling problems
Litecoin is probably being pumped for no other reason that it’s the only coin actually functional right now.
Some altcoins are on a tear. EOS is up like 8x since I called it “criminally underpriced”. SALT is up almost 3x since the same.
SALT is launching crypto backed loans in a week or so, probably bullish for the token and also for crypto in general.
IOTA seems to have had a huge pump, but I don’t hold that mostly because I don’t believe in the team or the technology.
Civic hasn’t moved much, which is disappointing, but I’m still maintaining my large bet on it. It’s going to be something you have to be patient for, but Vinny just announced that there will be staking, which is huge for holders of civic.
I’m out of specific predictions.
Though, My gut feeling is that we are just now beginning the huge bubble phase of crypto, and it’s my sense that we have another six months of run ups like we’ve seen in the last month. I’m starting to believe that Bitcoin 100,000 is a bit low for a 2018 prediction, and maybe 500,000 is beginning to not seem impossible (to be clear, that’s not a prediction, but my point is that 8x in 2018 seems low because we are without a doubt in a bubble and my gut says it’s early). That may sound absolutely crazy, but a prediction of hitting 19,800 before the end of the year would’ve been crazy even a week ago.
A few back of the envelope numbers:
Bitcoin market cap at $500,000: ~10 trillion
Gold market cap: 7 trillion
Cash in circulation: 1 trillion
So, if you call it digital gold and a payment system replacement for cash, then the fundamentals support almost 10 trillion. Could assets which could theoretically justify a $10 trillion market see a bubble run up above 10 trillion? Yes.
But 100,000 is my stretch prediction for 2018.
Anybody wading in a this point needs to understand that there will be massive volatility. Be prepared for 50% gains and losses on a regular basis. Also, there is some risk that the entire thing comes crashing down. Never, ever, invest more than you can afford to lose, which is a cliché, but relevant now more than ever.
Also, if you want to buy immediately, just wait till next week after futures start trading to eliminate some risk. You may miss out on some upside, but I think not losing money is more important than making it.
At this point, I’m comfortable recommending that everyone should have 2% of their investment portfolio in cryptocurrency as a minimum. 5% if you have a high risk tolerance.