As I write this, Bitcoin is in the midst of a dip to 12,000. Some people think it could go below 10,000.
I bought some more Bitcoin around 16,000, and I’m not worried at all.
I just recently read this fascinating essay by a guy who apparently used to work at KKR. It’s a little slow to get started, but the conclusion hits you pretty hard about halfway through: the real money will be in the last standing store of value.
You should, of course, read the paper, but the gist is that there is very little inherent value in payment tokens, and less value than we all think in utility tokens. This is due to high velocity.
The real value will be in the token that becomes the store of value, with relatively lower velocity. And that appears to be Bitcoin.
The only real competitor to Bitcoin right now in the real world is gold, and Bitcoin is already better than gold in almost every way. And this is true even if Bitcoin continues to have huge transaction fees and nobody ends up using it for actual payments.
He rounds out the paper with a rough back of the envelope guess of the future possible price for a Bitcoin: $300,000 to $800,000. That’s right along the lines of my predictions.
I have been ambivalent about Bitcoin Cash, but after reading this it’s clear to me that they are headed in the wrong direction. They seem to be weakening the store of value function in order to focus on being a payment system in the short and medium-term. The upshot of this is that they are attempting to exit a high reward market with few competitors and enter a low reward market with many competitors.
I still plan to hold some as a hedge, but I still don’t have any long-term faith in Bitcoin Cash.
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