Thoughts I put down in 15 minutes…
That’s the big news over the last couple of days. The markets fell about 10%, but I can’t see any downside. The Chinese government is calling for an “orderly” wind down, so we don’t have to worry about hashing power changing abruptly.
And now the complaints about centralized mining in China no longer exist.
Altcoins are on a run
The reason for things going up and down changes every week. It can’t be predicted; you either get lucky or you don’t. The last week was the week of Ethereum competitors and payment coins. Ripple and Stellar, ADA, NEM, etc, all up.
Fundamentals have nothing to do with anything. Ripple doesn’t process anything (relatively) and has no assurance of future volume with banks and it’s now the second largest coin. The founder just tied Mark Zuckerberg in wealth. TRON is up some ungodly number of X’s, even though it’s a little-known Chinese coin with a whitepaper that reads like an 8th grade report… while at the same time having to defend against accusations of plagiarism from other white papers.
I don’t know what else to say. I hope a lot of you know that you’re gambling. So far, you won, but I recommend that you try very hard to get into some coins which have some real business models and real teams behind them.
ICOs are back, but different
We are out of the ICO slump from the fall, but it seems that smart (big) money has it all figured out now. The really promising coins are now being presold to hedge funds. The public isn’t getting any, or they are getting some “token” public sale.
The old saying by someone smart still applies here: if you sit at the table and you don’t know who the sucker is, it’s probably you. There are still ICO’s failing to raise their whole round, and if you get stuck with some tokens in an ICO like this, it’s going to be a long hike.
Ethereum is up modestly on another underwhelming software rollout. I continue to think Ethereum runs purely on hope, but there seems to be an awful lot of hope out there. It’s going to be around for a while.
Vitalik seems to be trying to get serious about scaling, rolling out some announcements of bounties for advancements along those lines. There’s a long way to go and the network is really congested.
Bitcoin stops for rest
We seem to be bouncing around 14,000 to 16,000, and all of the technical analysis people keep calling breaks to the upside and to the downside. In previous cycles, once all of the altcoins have had their run, then we see value bleeding from all of the altcoins into Bitcoin for a huge runup. That of course works every time until it doesn’t.
I doubt the China mining thing is going to have any effect at all. The first futures contracts settle the middle of this month. I don’t think there will be any effects from that either.
I FEEL, that Bitcoin is on the verge of another run to $20k+. Just gut, but we may need to wait around for some good news first. It’s going to happen, eventually, especially since there have been like 20 ETF applications filed this year. The regulators can’t keep blocking all of them. Plus, hedge funds raised a bunch of money last year and now they have to put the money to work, so there’s going to be a steady inflow of institutional money over the next year.
As I wrote last time, I’m out of predictions. I’m sticking with my basket of BTC, ETH, LTC, EOS, CVC, OMG, ZRX, SALT, XLM (because I got it for free). I also jumped into the Blockstack, Urbit, and Props ICOs. MTL may be my first real failure, as it was delisted from Bittrex today. Maybe they’ll roll out a good product and redeem themselves.
I think Dragonchain might be interesting, as well as RaiBlocks. WAX, PowerLedger, and Enigma get thrown around as maybe solid. I haven’t done diligence on any of these.
I still don’t like privacy coins because of regulatory risk.
I think it will be a good month for Civic, as was December. This is not investing advice.