This will be my last blog post specifically about cryptocurrency unless something crazy comes up that I feel like I have something to say that nobody else has said. I want to focus on other things in my writing.
One of the reasons is that I think other people are doing it better, so I recommend you sign up for the Token Economy newsletter.
You don’t need a blog post from meeting to know that the cryptocurrency market is in a downturn.
As I have said over and over, the crypto market repeats until it doesn’t, and I thought the drop in January would be like the five or so drops in the last few years to lose 30% and then resume the steady climb. I had a hunch that the drop before tax season was due to everyone selling to pay taxes, and even though that was partially right it kept on going afterwards.
If we are not in the capitulation phase, we are coming upon it imminently. If I had any money left, I’d be buying about now.
All that said, I am still optimistic about cryptocurrency returns over the next year. Here are some thoughts on coins I follow:
Bitcoin has been the solid blue chip cryptocurrency, losing only 60% or so from its high. I think the fundamentals look great.
The lightning network is still in beta, and I still think it will be a game changer. Despite its beta status, there are thousands of nodes on the network already. When launched sometime in early 2019, it will provide practically free, instant transactions. This will be the beginning of its use as an actual payment network and its adoption by merchants.
ETFs continue to be submitted for approval, and they continue to be declined or postponed. I don’t expect any movement on this until early next year. But there will be an ETF approved eventually, and that will be big.
The NYSE has announced that they are going to create a regulated exchange. That’s also big news.
These three coins, along with a few others, are racing to be the new app platform of the future. Ethereum is the solid one of the group, but still suffers from scaling problems. The move to Proof of Stake is STILL behind schedule, and many people wonder if it will ever happen.
EOS launched its mainnet, but not without a rocky start. The RAM market has proved to be a poor design, but early RAM speculators made a lot of money on the run up. New accounts cost too much and they’re scrambling to figure out how to fix it. Meanwhile, since it is open source there are some forks happening in September promising to fix the problems. I am bullish on EOS, and cautiously watching the forks.
NEO has launched and is fixing some bugs of its own. My one NEO token has to be reissued. The problem with NEO is that it’s currently not really decentralized at all.
Nobody knows who’s going to win this race, but there will be plenty of upside for these coins in the medium term unless one pulls away from the pack. However, I am worried about Ethereum’s ability to keep up with the new competitors. I currently don’t hold any Ethereum.
Civic (I am an advisor)
Civic has been a favorite coin of mine for a very long time. I participated in the ICO.
The market has been brutal on the token price, but I haven’t sold a penny. I still believe in the team, and they are still hard at work building a real company. Recently, they released a proof of concept beer vending machine and an actual identity product called id codes. They also launched Identity.com, which will be the home of the identity marketplace.
The roadmap seems to have slipped about six months, which happens. Still bullish.
I still love this project. Guardium is launching on NEO soon. I don’t know if I’ll make any money on it, but it’s still a good thing for the world
Workcoin (I am an advisor)
Fred and team are pretty awesome. While waiting on EOS to launch and work out the bugs, they’ve built a very nice wallet (Lynx) that seems to be the best thing out there. The wallet will be integrated into workcoin when it goes live. I’m still hugely excited about this project. I believe this project could become what thumbtack never did.
Urbit may be the sleeper in my portfolio. It’s hard to explain, but it’s basically a re-decentralized Internet and a rewrite of the whole Linux stack. They just raised a bunch of money and are working full speed on product. Very excited. Public sale coming up in the fall. This one will either be world changing or end up as a very niche product for system administrator types.
I don’t know what’s happening with stellar. It’s held its value quite well compared to many coins. I haven’t heard anything from the project, which is basically good news. I invested in mobilecoin which will run on the stellar platform, so there are indications of future growth. Really haven’t been following.
I made a small bet on Salt and lost horribly. Lesson learned: do your research before you invest. I knew there had been insider sales before I bought at the public sale, but I had no idea that something like 90% of the tokens had been sold at a fraction of the price I paid. I got screwed by a founder split and dump and a subsequent flight of management.
They appear to be still alive and have launched a new platform, but I’m not holding my breath.
I’m calling for us to be back to an all-time high in Bitcoin ($20k) by the end of the year, and there should at least be proportional growth in all of the alt coins and tokens.
This is the baseline.
High quality alt coins will probably outperform Bitcoin and some coins will continue their march to zero. Move your coins right now and try to find quality projects.
And for all of you depressed about the market, here is a nice graph that I think is plausible over the next year: